At the mid-year mark of 2025, markets have moved through a choppy and unpredictable six months, marked by shifting policy signals . Entering the year, the anticipated sources of disruption—trade, geopolitical, immigration, and regulatory policy, along with fiscal uncertainty in Washington – have each taken turns testing investor sentiment. Trade policy dominated early headlines, peaking with the dramatic rollout of a new tariff regime in April, followed by a sudden 90-day reprieve to allow for further negotiations. Markets initially plunged into bear territory, dropping 21%, only to rebound sharply – nearly 30% from mid-April into June – pushing the S&P to record highs in a V-shaped rally reminiscent of early 2020. Despite this recovery, uncertainty lingers. The July 9 expiration of most tariff suspensions has left 98% of U.S. trade volume unresolved, and sector-level tariffs remain in flux. While inflation has remained muted at 2.4%, upward pressure is expected as firms begin passing on costs. Meanwhile, significant changes in immigration policy have yet to fully ripple through the labor market or inflation, but recent social unrest hints at the potential for greater disruption ahead. At the Trust Company, we believe that regardless of near-term volatility, a conservative, hands-on approach remains a time-tested strategy for navigating uncertainty and delivering long-term, risk-adjusted returns. Click here to read our Current Outlook & Portfolio Strategy article.
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At the midpoint of 2025, markets have experienced a turbulent and uneven first half of the year. Investors entered January anticipating potential headwinds—from trade and immigration policy shifts to geopolitical uncertainty and Washington’s evolving fiscal stance. These risks have each surfaced at various times, shaking investor confidence and pushing the S&P 500 into correction territory with a decline of over 10%. Trade policy, in particular, dominated headlines, with dramatic swings following the rollout of a new tariff regime and subsequent delays in implementation. While equities rebounded sharply in the second quarter, reclaiming record highs in a swift V-shaped recovery, uncertainty remains as most tariff suspensions expired in July with little resolution. Inflation, for now, has remained surprisingly contained at 2.4%, though pressures are expected to build.
Market fluctuations are a natural part of investing. Understanding how to navigate them is essential to protecting and growing your assets. Key drivers of volatility include shifting economic indicators, geopolitical developments, corporate developments, and changes in investor sentiment. While unsettling in the short term, these movements can also create opportunity. At The Trust Company, we encourage investors to maintain a long-term perspective, stay diversified across asset classes, and regularly rebalance portfolios to ensure alignment with their goals. Downturns can present value-buying opportunities or allow for tax loss harvesting, while fixed income often serves as a stabilizing force during periods of market stress. Above all, resisting emotional reactions and adhering to a well-structured plan is critical. If you’re reconsidering your financial strategy – or simply looking for guidance – our team is here to support you with a personalized, disciplined investment approach.
Click here to read our Managing Volatility article.
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